2026 Economic Outlook: Economic Expansion Expected to Continue, But Balance of Risk Tilts Modestly Downward

Equipment & Software Investment Projected to Expand 6.2% in 2026; GDP to Expand 1.8%

WASHINGTON, Dec. 17, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026 despite a moderation in growth, according to the 2026 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook released today by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation. Real equipment and software investment is projected to rise 6.2% in 2026, easing from 2025’s standout pace but still strong by historical standards. The report also forecasts real GDP growth of 1.8%, supported by healthy equipment demand, AI-driven capital expenditures, and equity market strength.

“Despite ongoing economic uncertainty and trade volatility, the economy carries some momentum into 2026, due in large part to business investment growth, the lifeblood of the equipment finance industry,” said Leigh Lytle, President of the Foundation, and President & CEO of the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association. “2025 was a strong year for the industry, and while economic growth may slow somewhat in the months ahead, the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts should help to bolster labor markets and encourage investment activity.”

Highlights from the 2026 Outlook include:

U.S. Economy: The outlook for 2026 reflects an economy that is expanding (albeit more slowly), but also increasingly exposed to policy uncertainty, market volatility, and widening consumer disparities. These dynamics point to an economy that can still generate moderate growth, with equipment demand and AI-driven capex remaining important sources of growth. That said, the expansion is increasingly vulnerable to policy missteps and market shocks, leaving the balance of risk tilted modestly to the downside.
Trade Policy: Trade policy will continue to drive the macroeconomic narrative during the first half of 2026. Tariffs, which have been a central component of the administration’s economic strategy, have increased roughly eightfold over the last 12 months, yet due to a variety of factors, including pass-through delays and limited retaliation from foreign governments, the overall impact on the economy has been less severe than many economists expected. The Supreme Court’s upcoming decision on the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act will determine whether the current tariff regime continues or is replaced by a more procedurally constrained framework. Either outcome carries significant economic implications, but if the tariffs are struck down, a messy transition period may ensue.
AI-Driven Investment and Equity Market Performance: The AI investment boom remains the primary engine of economic and industry growth. AI-related firms continue to drive a disproportionate share of S&P 500 gains and corporate earnings, and 2025 saw a record $350 billion in AI infrastructure spending. This surge has fueled exceptional strength in technology equipment and software investment. Yet the rapid run-up has brought clearer signs of strain: valuations look increasingly stretched, financing structures have become more complex and debt-dependent, and investors are increasingly wary that an AI-driven correction could disrupt both markets and capital spending.
Equipment and Software Investment: Real equipment and software investment posted its strongest two-quarter performance in at least 20 years during the first half of 2025 (excluding the pandemic rebound). These gains have been highly concentrated, with technology equipment and software accounting for most of the expansion. Investment growth has been more muted outside these verticals.
Equipment Finance Industry: The AI-related investment boom was a major bright spot in an otherwise cooling economy in 2025, and this level of investment has provided a major tailwind for the equipment finance industry. The AI buildout will continue to provide a significant boost to the economy and the industry in 2026. The Foundation’s Monthly Confidence Index and ELFA’s CapEx Finance Index agree, indicating resilient new business volume, healthy financial conditions, and industry confidence above the historical average. Three Fed rate cuts across the fourth quarter of 2025 should also provide a boost to the industry as borrowing costs fall and credit conditions potentially ease.

The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor, which is released in conjunction with the Economic Outlook, tracks seven equipment and software investment verticals. In addition, the Momentum Monitor Sector Matrix provides a customized data visualization of current values of each of the seven verticals based on recent momentum and historical strength. This month, three verticals are strong and accelerating, one is weak but accelerating, and three are weak and decelerating. However, because of the recent U.S. government shutdown, several key federal data sources used in this product are temporarily unavailable. The Momentum Monitors will be updated every month as new data becomes available and will revise current forecasts if necessary. Based on currently available indicators, over the next six months the Foundation expects the following trends to materialize on a year-over-year basis:

Agriculture machinery investment growth should strengthen.
Construction machinery investment growth should continue to improve.
Energy and electrical equipment investment growth should strengthen.
Industrial equipment investment growth is likely to weaken.
Medical equipment investment growth will likely moderate.
Technology equipment and software investment growth is likely to soften from peak levels.
Transportation equipment investment growth should improve.

All Foundation studies are available for download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization with a mission to advance the $1.3 trillion equipment finance sector by producing data-forward research and market outlooks, as well as cultivating the next-generation workforce through Campus to Career programs, including curriculum development and collegiate scholarships. Founded in 1989 and 100% funded through charitable donations, the Foundation drives innovation and career development for the future of the industry. www.leasefoundation.org

Media Contact: Jane Esworthy, jesworthy@elfaonline.org.

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